India's COVID Conundrum
COVID cases in India
It is exactly one year since the first nation-wide COVID lockdown in India as a preventive measure against the spread of the disease. I’ve been at home in India (Mumbai area) for almost 2 weeks now visiting from California, USA after over 4 years (yes India will always be my home). In India we’re currently on the cusp of a second big wave of cases and I’ll provide some analysis based on what I’ve observed.
Given that this post is about an ongoing pandemic I’ll reiterate that these are my opinions based primarily on anecdotal evidence with some references to other public articles.
Masking Culture
Keeping social distance is not really possible in India if you need to get out of your home. Masking is the best preventive mechanism instead. Here is an unscientific breakdown of what I observed on the streets.
Masks in Pocket - Masks are required when you are in a public space. Hence as law abiding citizens we do carry masks always. There is always a possibility of being fined without a mask hence I assume that everyone does have a mask on them at all times.
Chin masks - These individuals do have a mask on their face, but not covering their nose since that would be too inconvenient. One of the more interesting variants of this category is when individuals lower the mask below their mouth especially when talking since we are loquacious by nature and do not like being muffled.
In all fairness, it is pretty hot and humid right now and covering your nose as well does form a layer of sweat inside the mask!Proper masks - These people were wearing masks covering their nose and mouth. Older people were generally wearing masks. Inside buses and trains, almost everyone was wearing masks.
Double masks - need I say more.
Current state
This nonchalant adherence to masking and lack of social distancing was a shock to me almost as soon as I came out of the airport. However although there have been multiple fatalities due to the disease, COVID has just not been as deadly as initially expected. Hence the population is adapting as it sees fit. I strongly believe that cases in India have been massively under reported and even misreported so that numbers are low. It is possible that deaths are low because of the “youth” of the population . However a better real answer will possibly be published only after a few years of scientific study on this subject.
Here are some other anecdotes I’ve heard on this pandemic-
“Virus affects only people in the cities or rich people” - Spread is likely higher in the major cities and also being reported there.
The government is over emphasizing the criticality of the virus - Everyone is always critical of their government.
The government forgot that covid exists because of elections - State elections are due in multiple major states and politicians have conveniently also bent the rules around compliance. Related article in the deccan herald.
Religion - The Government of India is calling for devotees to join the Kumbh mela which usually has over 30 million attendees in a single day. In the list of super-spreader events I assume this would be in the top five. Other religions in India are also actively conducting their rituals and events as well.
Whatsapp - Misinformation now spreads rapidly with advanced technology. Questionable “alternative medicines” have potentially already cured the virus.
Next Steps
During the original lockdown there was very little practical information about the virus and the country did follow the mandate. Now information is fuzzy and the Government has not got much social capital to get people to adhere to covid based rules. Further there has been a lot of disinformation around vaccines as well which is a massive challenge.
India is doing well with the vaccine rollout and that is going to be critical to reduce spread. From April 1st, anyone over the age of 45 will be eligible for vaccines -
Strains are spreading as well and there might be local lockdowns in places like Mumbai. However this has massive economic impact as well and will take a lot of political will.
The Indian government can also take other heavy handed approaches if they choose like testing without consent.
I am always optimistic about India. As chaotic and messy as this might seem, we will find a way to navigate through this pandemic successfully adapting as we go along. Jugaad is how we solve problems… including COVID.
Addendum
See India's COVID Conundrum continued for a follow up on this topic.
Masks in pocket is coming from very similar mentality of helmet on hands while riding vehicle!